Whom Do You Believe?

January 24th, 2012

It is difficult to know what set of AMOLED TV sales numbers to accept as real. For example, executives from OLED TV maker LG (via Forbes interview at CES) stated they hope to sell as many as 200K to 300K of their new 55-inch AMOLED TVs this year, and boost that number to the 2M mark by 2013. Not so, says the much more conservative estimates of iSuppli, the research group pegs AMOLED TV sales number total (not just LG’s) at just over one-tenth the LG goal (34K units) for 2012 and growing to perhaps 500K by 2013 and 2.1M units by 2015.

The big unknown and a powerful determinant of course, is at what price (assuming they can deliver)? The way-thin OLED display with knock out colors and razor thin bezel has been floating retail price numbers in the $10K range, with a precipitous drop to perhaps less than half that amount ($4K) by the end of 2012. But nothing official has come out of either LG or rival Samsung.

Part of that issue is ramp and yield, scaling the production of 55-inch OLED panels to go into production at the Gen 8.5 factory that LG plans to use. Back in mid-July 2011, LG’s CEO Kwon Young-soo stated the company was planning to move directly to Gen 8.5 (2200mm x 2500mm) panels. LG’s current Gen 4.5 plant is reportedly supplying panels to Nokia at a rate of about 4K substrates (730mm x 920mm) per month. This plant has been operational since Feb-2011 and can scale to 12K substrates per month. Nokia is using these OLEDs for smaller smartphone displays in a deal announced with LG back in Jan-2011.

In July, LG’s Kwon said the company was shifting away from the small AMOLED business in favor making the large-sized TV displays, with a commitment to launch by mid-2012. The CES Press Day, and introduction of the LG 55-inch AMOLED TV (55EM9600) was the culmination of that commitment.

But for LG, the numbers don’t quite add up with the company needing around 37K units per month (assuming a May 2012 launch) and the company previously stated that Gen8.5 fab can only produce 30K panels per month at 100% yield.

On the other hand, just the fact that we are discussing the question of unit volume and price for a 55-inch AMOLED-TV set is impressive in itself. How does that saying go… it’s not how well the elephant dances, it’s the fact that it is up on its haunches and shaking to the beat that is so astounding. Truth be told, LG and Samsung, perhaps even Panasonic too are planning to deliver in 2012, the AMOLED TV promised so long ago.

Quick somebody pinch me, we’ve been covering the technology for years, looking at jaw-dropping prototypes at major display and consumer events, only to have those same devices, shuttle back into the recesses of R&D labs, gone and forgotten until the next major confab comes along.

So getting back to the original issue, over whom to believe… Who cares? Bring it on, get those units launched and into the market. I can’t wait for the endless rounds of out-of-box and hands-on articles, Blogs and YouTube video’s on just how cool, thin, bright, colorful, and saturated, and if these displays measure up to the present king of the display hill, AM-LCD’s.

But this new year of the Dragon, and an election year to boot, here in the US, may prove to be the watershed year that a true AMOLED TV finally ships, albeit the wealthier side of the hoi polloi. Will it truly give us a reason to move that old LCD or Plasma dog into the garage, forcing us to dip into the kiddie’s college fund, or take out that second mortgage to bring home the latest and greatest, thinnest and brightest TV ever made? – Steve Sechrist